Gyumri-2 or the Restoration of Armenia: A Critical Look at the Political Landscape
The recent semi-SMS-style opening of the ‘Gyumri-2’ topic by the authorities has, in fact, been beneficial. It forces us to confront what this scenario truly signifies for Armenia’s future.
Gyumri: As Content and Technology
From a content perspective, the ‘Gyumri scenario’ is highly problematic. The quality of subsequent authorities is paramount. Armenia and the region are currently a powder keg, and the nature of the next government is critically important. One wrong step, an incorrect assessment of reality, or an inadequate understanding of the situation and the world could ultimately push Armenia to the brink of disaster. In this regard, the substance and solidity of the next government are vital. The state is not a testing ground. One experimental government has been more than enough for us at this stage.
Regarding the technological aspect of the ‘Gyumri scenario,’ the authorities’ outburst reveals their insecurity. After all, this scenario is constitutional, legal, and even logical. But that’s not even the most important point. In practice, it is impossible today to predict the composition of the upcoming National Assembly, and therefore, the options for forming a government. It is impossible to insist on any single development option today. This is perhaps a unique case where both the government-opposition and various segments of the opposition must be honest with each other. For several serious, objective reasons, non-standard social strata have formed in Armenia (which I deliberately do not mention), whose voting content no one can calculate in advance.
So, what are the authorities making the subject of discussion? And finally, why are they fixated on 2-3 forces? There are other potential forces that could enter the National Assembly and significantly change everyone’s calculations, and they still have time to submit their applications.
Now, perhaps the most crucial point for me: the integration of a respectable list of public figures who have emerged in recent years into the electoral lists. If they do not find their place in the electoral processes (either they did not want to, or they were not allowed), the content and results of the election will suffer. The appearance of normal, principled, and non-adventurous people on various lists will significantly reduce unprincipled behavior and adventurism on a national scale.
The Restoration of Armenia: The Only Correct Model
The country’s interests and its current state demand that responsible political forces set precisely this task: the restoration of Armenia. And they must impose this content on the election campaign, starting today.
We face an extremely complex reality and a list of difficult questions that must be answered honestly. I want to start the list with points that may be unexpected for many, but which are already on our primary agenda.
- Loss of Internal Governance: The horrifying manifestations of street gangs, vendettas, and everyday lawlessness are seen every day, in every city. This is a serious problem. People are afraid to let their children out of their homes. Such a thing has never happened in Armenia, even during the most difficult periods. On every meter, some degenerate can do anything. I specifically emphasize: this is not just a police problem. This is a political problem. How are we going to quickly restore the internal governance of the country? Today, within the country, apart from arresting people and filing cases, nothing else is happening, but no problems are being solved. Peaceful Armenia is turning into a wild country without internal rules of coexistence. The reason is the illiteracy of governance and the 8-year aggression coming from the authorities.
- Unresolved Issues: No problem is being solved-from deadly air quality indicators and pothole-ridden streets to reforms in all sectors that are announced and immediately suspended because they are unrealistic in real life. No program is brought to life: either it is canceled halfway through, or significantly changed, or forgotten. This speaks to the extreme poor quality of governance.
- Guaranteed Peace: How do we achieve guaranteed peace? Today, it is not peace; it is a state of ‘non-war’ that will require complex and serious management from any authority.
- The ‘Trip’ and its Role: What is the ‘Trip’ ultimately? What link is it in the road connecting Armenia to Turkey-Azerbaijan, and what real guarantee of peace does it offer? What development prospects does the ‘Trip’ have, or does it have any at all?
- Azerbaijani Demands: If tomorrow Azerbaijan makes demands, say, in the Gegharkunik region, with the threat or even use of force, what role will the ‘Trip’ play? Perhaps Trump will establish peace for the 11th time, say, at the expense of one shore of Sevan?
- Path to Internal Reconciliation: How do we envision and try to solve the path to internal reconciliation? With a fragmented, atomized, and in some places, lost public sentiment, we will get nowhere.
- Addressing Emigration: How do we perceive and try to solve Armenia’s most serious strategic problem: emigration? Not everything is superficial PR, where people gather and say, ‘Thanks to Nikol, there is no emigration this year.’ We know that emigration numbers have eased solely due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and Trump’s anti-migration policy. If any of these factors ease tomorrow, the numbers will change dramatically.
- Return of Azerbaijanis: It is obvious that the topic of the return of hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis will soon be on the agenda. It is no coincidence that they are already carelessly walking through Armenian yards. This government does not have a solution to this issue; we know that. What do others offer?
This list can be extended. It remains to understand its true purpose. It is necessary to change both the mood and the content of the election campaign. Otherwise, we will not even have Gyumri-2, or even Yerevan-1.
Vahé Hovhannisyan
Alternative Projects Group
