Gyumri, Shirak Province, Armenia – The political landscape in Armenia is witnessing a significant tactical shift by the ruling authorities in the lead-up to the upcoming elections. Recent statements and the change in tone from government representatives suggest a departure from their previous, overtly defensive stance, hinting at a more aggressive, yet potentially flawed, pre-election strategy.
From ‘Gyumri-2’ to ‘Opposition Scrambles for 20%’: A Shifting Narrative
Just two weeks ago, the prevailing message from the ‘high doors’ was a resolute ‘we won’t allow Gyumri-2’. This slogan, repeated incessantly by government spokespersons, inadvertently provided a clear framework for the electoral process. The more frequently it was echoed, the faster it spread among the populace, quietly consolidating opposition forces around a shared idea. This misstep was evidently recognized by the authorities, as yesterday’s pronouncements indicate a sharp change in strategy.
The ‘Gyumri-2’ narrative implicitly acknowledged that opposition forces could garner at least 51 percent of the vote, effectively placing the ruling power in a minority position. However, the content of the new message is diametrically opposed, suggesting that ‘the opposition’s struggle is merely for 20 percent of the opposition votes’ and that the ruling power will be re-elected with 50 percent or more.
This new tactic, which will undoubtedly be pushed forward in the coming days, aims to project an image of invincibility: ‘we have won, there is no game against us.’ This will likely be accompanied by a flurry of fabricated sociological campaigns designed to reinforce this perception. However, this strategy is also likely to be short-lived. It is outdated and, in this age of technology, quickly loses credibility when confronted with real public sentiment.
Internal Opposition Tensions and Shadow Influence
Another, derivative objective of the strategy unveiled yesterday is to create internal opposition tensions and contradictions. This will likely be amplified through methods of shadow influence. Nevertheless, this is a poorly calculated approach, as there are serious individuals within all opposition systems who will not allow this primitive ploy to succeed.
There is also an objectively important factor: major opposition systems do not steal votes from each other. A process has emerged where they gather and consolidate their own support, rather than vying for a constant opposition electorate.
Finally, another derivative line of this new strategy involves brazen attacks against opposition systems and figures.
The Road Ahead: What to Expect from the Authorities
Irrespective of its tone, changing tactics, or attempts to boost morale within its ranks, the ruling power is well aware of the objective situation, which does not offer opportunities for its reproduction. In these circumstances, what can be expected from the authorities in the near future?
- The ruling power will form its own alliance: Civil Contract (CP) + law enforcement (as no reputable political force will cooperate with the authorities).
- Pressure on opposition figures will intensify.
- There will be little attempt to negotiate, understanding that any agreements would be fleeting and not upheld.
- Attempts will be made to mitigate the acute internal social conflicts it has instigated (e.g., the campaign against the Church).
- Social bribes will continue to be distributed, but experience shows that these do not yield political dividends (e.g., health insurance, pension increases).
- Attempts will be made to find real solutions for the Armenian ‘Moldovan scenario.’ However, this is very risky. Firstly, it is difficult to calculate what public-street tensions it would lead to, and secondly, it could directly lead to a sharp, not equivalent, but rather a shocking increase in votes for other opposition forces.
- Other options…
What the Opposition Must Do
Opposition systems must stop merely reacting to government narratives. They must be flexible in terms of short-term tactics and become dominant in public consciousness by presenting their own approaches and proposals. They must be prepared for significant changes in the situation to maintain their advantageous position. Ultimately, they must find the strength within themselves to cease fruitless and destructive attacks on each other and the pursuit of mercantile interests.
Vahagn Hovhannisyan, Alternative Projects Group
Source: https://verelq.am/hy/experts/show/107153
